Flood Potential: Low
Ice Jam Potential: Low
Issued to: local municipalities and school boards, local conservation authorities, emergency response agencies, health unit, media
Date: March 21, 2025 (3:00 PM)
The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority (NVCA) advises that recent precipitation, above freezing temperatures, and associated snowmelt have resulted in above seasonal water levels throughout the watershed that will continue over the next several days. The public, especially children, as well as pets, are advised to stay away from all area water bodies as unstable ice cover, slippery banks and fast flowing watercourses will result in dangerous conditions.
Weather:
A significant portion of the snowpack has melted due to rainfall and warm temperatures late last week and earlier this week. Under these conditions, water levels and flows in local watercourses have increased. Our watershed is expected to receive 5-10mm of mixed rain-snow precipitation over the next three days. Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from 0 to 5°C, with nighttime temperatures falling below freezing.
Risks:
Local watercourse flows are elevated throughout our watershed. No major flooding is expected at this time, but some watercourses have reached or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, low-lying areas, and areas with poor drainage. The Nottawasaga River (Edenvale) and the Willow Creek water levels still remain slightly above their banks but are beginning to stabilize and their flows should begin to decline over the weekend.
In addition, the milder temperatures and rain have caused the breakup of the ice cover where it exists, causing localized water level increases and flooding. Melting snow and runoff will result in increases in flows and possible ice break up. At this time of year there is always the potential for localized flooding from ice jams.
Actions:
Stay away from watercourses, especially areas previously covered with ice, as conditions can change rapidly. Watercourses will be high and fast flowing, the banks may be slippery, and any remaining ice cover will not be stable. Avoid areas already experiencing erosion or blockages with debris, including ice jams. Please keep children and pets away from banks as they may be slippery and unstable.
Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority staff will be monitoring the situation closely and will provide an update if conditions change. This message will be in effect until (or updated before) 5pm on Monday, March 24th, 2025.
For additional information, please check our website at: www.nvca.on.ca
Taryn Arsenault
Flood Duty Officer
A Watershed Condition Statement is a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. A Water Safety message indicates that high flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.