Watershed Condition Statement:
Water Safety
Flood Potential: Low
Issued to: local municipalities and school boards, local conservation authorities, emergency response agencies, health unit, media
Date: April 10, 2026 (9:30 AM)
The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority (NVCA) advises that forecasted precipitation, above freezing temperatures, and associated snowmelt will result in above seasonal water levels throughout the watershed that will continue over the next several days. The public, especially children, as well as pets, are advised to stay away from all area water bodies as unstable ice cover, slippery banks and fast flowing watercourses will result in dangerous conditions.
Weather:
A significant portion of the snowpack has melted due to recent rainfall and above zero temperatures. Under these conditions, water levels and flows in local watercourses have increased. Our watershed is expected to receive 15-20mm of rain over the next three days. Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from 5 to 10℃ over the next 48 hours, with nighttime temperatures in the single digits or below freezing. Monday is expected to bring temperatures ranging from 15 to 20℃ across the watershed, which is expected to speed up snowmelt in the watershed areas with snowpack remaining.
Risks:
Local watercourse flows are elevated throughout our watershed. No major flooding is expected at this time, but some watercourses have reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, low-lying areas, and areas with poor drainage. The Nottawasaga River (Edenvale) and the Willow Creek still remain slightly above their bankfull flows, with flows not anticipated to recede with the forecast precipitation over the next 72 hours.
In addition, the milder temperatures and rain have caused the breakup of the ice cover where it exists, causing localized water level increases and flooding. Melting snow and runoff will result in increases in flows. At this time of year there is always the potential for localized flooding from any remaining ice jams.
Actions:
Stay away from watercourses, especially areas previously covered with ice, as conditions can change rapidly. Watercourses will be high and fast flowing, the banks may be slippery, and any remaining ice cover will not be stable. Avoid areas already experiencing erosion or blockages with debris, including ice jams. Please keep children and pets away from banks as they may be slippery and unstable.
Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority staff will be monitoring the situation closely and will provide an update if conditions change. This message will be in effect until (or updated before) 5pm on Thursday, April 16th, 2026.
For additional information, please check our website at: www.nvca.on.ca
Dalia Al-Ali
Flood Duty Officer
A Watershed Condition Statement is a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. A Water Safety message indicates that high flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.