The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority

Flood Potential Low Ice Jam Potential Low

Watershed Condition​ Statement: ​​​​​Water Safety​​

Flood Potential: Low

Ice Jam Potential: Low

Issued to: local municipalities and school boards, local conservation authorities, emergency response agencies, health unit, media
Date:       February 9, 2023 (2:00 PM)

The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority advises that warm temperatures and rain over the next 24-48 hours will cause our snowpack to melt and increase flows in area watercourses. The public and especially children are advised to stay away from all area water bodies as unstable ice cover, slippery banks and fast flowing watercourses will result in dangerous conditions.

Above-freezing daytime air temperatures, as high as 5 to 7°C, are forecast for southern Ontario. A low-pressure system has moved into the province bringing widespread showers to the region. Total rain accumulation amounts across our watershed are forecast to reach 23-33 mm while the system moves slowly through the province.

A considerable snowpack is reported throughout the NVCA watershed. Under milder temperatures, snow will start melting very gradually and the snowpack will become saturated with water. As a result, the rain on Thursday will produce substantial runoff.

Under these conditions, water levels and flows in local watercourses will increase. No major flooding is expected at this time, but some watercourses may reach or exceed their banks, leading to localized flooding in floodplains, low-lying areas, and areas with poor drainage.

In addition, milder temperatures and rain could weaken and cause the breakup of the ice cover where it exists, causing localized water level increases and flooding.

Melting snow and runoff will result in increases in stream flows and possible ice break up. No major flooding is anticipated, however local conditions may vary. At this time of year there is always the potential for localized flooding and ice jams.

The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority continues to monitor river and stream conditions and will issue additional messages as conditions warrant. This message will be in effect until (or updated before) noon on Sunday, February 12th, 2023.

For additional information, please check our website at:

Taryn Arsenault
Flood Duty Officer

Watershed Condition Statement is a general notice of weather conditions that could pose a risk to personal safety or which have the potential to lead to flooding. A Water Safety message indicates that high flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.​

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